Tawi tein chimmi biaSeptember 22 ni ah a thukmi chawlehnak tharchuahnak: “Golden September” a sangbik caan nih ruahchannak a tlinh lo hnu ah Tuluk monoethylene glycol (MEG) market cu a hrampi thlennak hmun a phan cang. A tanglei polyester riantuannak rate cu 74.2% tiang a tla, filament yarn tibantuk tthen ah a thuk deuhmi chuahnak tlawmternak he. Ramchung ethylene-based le lungmeihol-to-MEG unit pawl cu a tlawmpal in an thawk tthan, a dihlak in a karh. Nichuahlei Tuluk tilawng dinhnak hmun ngan pipi nih zarh 8 chung pehzulh tein thilri hlonhnak an donghter i an thilri tlawmte an karhter hmasa bik. MEG futures contract nganbik cu nikhat ah 3% tluk a niam deuh in a khar, thilri khonnak caan cu Q4 ah aa thawk lai tiah market lungtlinnak he, cu nih cun thil man thlennak ah a hmunmi hneknak a chuahter.

Market zohfelnakSeptember 22 ah khan, Tuluk ramchung MEG market nih a fiangmi thlennak a langhter. Vawleicung ramkhel risk premiums a zor thluahmah i “a karh cuahmahmi thilri, a ttumchukmi halnak” timi riantuannak hrampi ah a ummi thleidannak a kau chin lengmang tikah, a hruaitu MEG futures contract cu session chung vialte a niam deuh i 3% hrawng a tla, a luan ciami zarh hnih chung a hmuhmi tthanchonak kha a hloh. Spot market cu a nem deuh: East China ah spot hnatlaknak man cu a niam deuh, chawlettu hna nih zuar an duhnak a fek deuh, cun a tanglei thil cawtu hna nih a fekmi halnak caah a tlawmte lawng an chiah, cu nih cun market lungput kha ralrin tein a chiah.

Supply Side: Ramchung Unit hmannak ah a fekmi tthanchonak, ramdang in luhtermi a tlawmA karh thluahmahmi thilri cu thilri-duhmi thlennak a chuahtertu a si. Ethylene-based MEG units, a tlawm deuhmi ethylene supply le a tthanchomi thil sernak margins nih a bawmhmi hna nih 82% cung riantuannak rate sang an ngeih peng, a ngan deuhmi thilri tam deuh cu an riantuan khawhnak dihlak in an kal. Lungmeihol-in-MEG unit hna caah, sunghnak le zohkhenhnak ttha ruangah kharmi Northwest le Thlanglei Tuluk ram i thilri tampi cu September thla lai in dongh lei ah fakpi in an thawk ṭhan, cu nih cun lungmeihol hmannak ah rang tukin a ṭhanchoter. Ram pumpi MEG riantuannak rate cu zarhkhat hnu zarhkhat ah 4 percentage points hrawng in a kai, cun ramchung zarh fatin chuahmi zong a karh ngaingai.

Ramdang thilri luhternak lei ah, ramdang thilri zohkhenhnak, phorhnak tlaihnak le vawleicung thilri luhchuah aa thlengmi ruangah September thla nichuahlei Tuluk tilawng dinhnak hmun ah a phanmi cu a niam peng, zarh fatin thilri luhternak zat cu zarhkhat hnu zarhkhat 8% hrawng a zor. Sihmanhsehlaw, ramchung thilchuahmi a karh chin lengmangmi nih ramdang thilri luhternak tlawmtam kha a tling tein a tlawmter, cu nih cun ramchung thilri chuahmi dihlak a karhter. October hlan ah lungmeihol in sermi thilri tam deuh cu an riantuan khawhnak dihlak tiang an karhter lai, cu nih cun thilri phorhnak lei hnahnawhnak kha a zualter chinchin lai.

Duhmi lei: A sang bik caan ruahchannak a tlamtlin lo, a ttha lomi ruahnak cheuhnak cu a karhDuhnak a derthawmnak cu a thuk chin lengmang, cun phungning tein “Golden September, Silver October” hmannak a sangbik caan cu a tam deuh cu a tling kho lo. A dihlak in polyester riantuannak rate cu 74.2% tiang a tla, hi caan chung i a tlangpi in caan ttha bik nakin a niam deuh i Spring Festival holiday chung i a niam deuhmi riantuannak rate hmanh a niam deuh. A tthencheunak in, polyester filament hri cu hmannak ah a tla bikmi a hmuh, a donghnak hmanmi thilpuan le thilthuam caah ramdang kuatnak nawl a dermi le ramchung duhnak a nemmi nih a den. Staple fiber le bottle-grade polyester cu a fekmi an si ko nain a phunphun in chuahmi zong an zorter.

A ṭhalomi ruahnak cheuhnak cu chawlehnak lei ah a karh peng: a donghnak hmantu thilthuam sernak sehzung hna nih puan sen tampi an ngeih i rianṭuannak man kaiter an i zuam, cu nih cun polyester chuahtu hna kha thilri dihmi a karh chin lengmang i thil sernak man a zorter hna. Polyester company tam deuh nih cun atu ah “duhnak ning in cawk, thilri chiahnak uk” timi strategy an hman, MEG thilri chiahnak kha ni 10-12 chung tlawmte ah an chiah i a rannak in chiah ṭhan an duh lo. Mah nih hin MEG hmannak taktak kha direct in a kham, cun caan tawite chung ah a fiangmi duhnak tthanchonak a um lai lo tiah ruah a si.

Thilri thlennak: Nichuahlei Tuluk tilawng dinhnak hna nih zarh 8 chung thilri chiahnak an dih, thilri sernak caan cu fehter a si cangThilri chiahnak tthanchonak nih supply-demand thlennak hmun kha phungning tein a fehter cang. Tuzarh ah, East China tilawng dinhnak hmun ngan pipi ah MEG stocks nih zarh 8 chung pehzulh tein destocking tuah ning a donghter i a tlawmpal in a karh, zarhkhat hnu zarhkhat ton 20,000 hrawng in a karh. Naite kum hna he tahchunh ahcun tilawng dinhnak hmun thilri hna cu a niam ko nain, spot man caah tlawmpal bawmhnak a pek, saknak sining a chuah tikah market cu “tight balance” in “loosing expectation” uknak ah aa thlen cang ti a langhter.

Cu lio ah, zarh fatin tilawng dinhnak hmun ah lakmi zat cu zarhkhat hnu zarhkhat a zor, cu nih cun a tanglei polyester sehzung hna in cawk duhnak a der deuhmi le a herhmi thil cawknak a tlawm deuhmi a langhter. Ramchung thilri chuahmi a karh chin lengmang i Q4 ah ramdang thilri luhchuahnak cu zaangfah tein a tthancho lai tiah ruah a si caah, market nih tilawng dinhnak hmun thilri pawl cu a hmunmi khonnak dirhmun ah an lut lai tiah a ruah.

Man & Margins: Lam kip ah hlawknak aa dangmi, pekchanhnak aa thlengmi a hung langThilchuahnak lam kip ah hlawknak aa dangmi nih thilri phorhnak tthanchonak zong a sersiam. Ethylene-based MEG caah, ramkip ethylene man a tlami nih a man a zorter i thil sernak man kha ttha tein a tthanchoter, cu nih cun thilchuaktu hna thazaang peknak kha a sangter. Lungmeihol-in-MEG caah, ramchung lumternak lungmeihol man cu a tlawm deuh in a um, cun MEG man a hlan deuh ah a kai tthanmi nih lungmeihol-based unit caah sunghnak a zorter, thawk tthannak tilet a chuahter i supply-side elasticity a on. Man bawmhnak a dermi nih MEG man caah a chiatnak hmun zong a hunpiak.

Hmuhning le cawknak ruahnak cheuhnakQ4 hmailei zoh tikah, MEG thilri sernak kalning cu a karh cuahmahmi thilri le a tlawmmi halnak karlak ah a kau ngai in dirhmi a si, cu nih cun man center ah a niam deuhmi hnahnawhnak a pek. Caan rau lo te ah, a tlawmmi tilawng dinhnak thilri nih a tlawmbik man caah bawmhnak a pek rih hna lai, cun market cu a nemmi thleidannak he aa tluk tein chawlehnak a tuah kho men. Caan karlak ah, thilri khonnak a thuk deuhdeuh tikah, thil man tuaktannak cu hnahnawhnak tangah a um peng lai.

B2B cawtu le chawlehnak a tuahtu hna caah, a tu ahcun a fekmi thil cawknak kha biapi ah chiah ding le thilri chiahnak nganpi sernak ah ralrin tein um ding in ruahnak kan cheuh hna. Zarh fatin tilawng dinhnak hmun thilri chiahnak data le polyester hmannak zat kha naih tein zohfel a ṭha, cun thilri chiahnak kalning tling tein fehter a si hnu le man a tlak hnu ah a phunphun in chiah ṭhan a si. Caan sau hnatlaknak caah, hnatlaknak tuahmi hmailei he aa pehtlaimi man khiahnak model pawl kha man aa thleng lengmangmi khamnak caah hman khawh a si.